Germany’s Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) has opened a consultation on the “Electricity and Gas/Hydrogen Scenario Framework 2027-2040/45” with the publication of the transmission system operators’ plans. Associations and organizations have until Sept. 28 to submit their assessments.
The transmission system operators have combined the two scenario frameworks and submitted them as a single joint scenario. The outlined developments are intended to support a climate-neutral energy system in Germany by 2045. Three scenarios have been developed for each of the years 2040 and 2045.
The most notable difference from previous scenario frameworks is significantly lower assumptions for installed electrolyzer capacity alongside much higher projections for battery storage. The transmission system operators have also increased their expectations for data centers, resulting in higher electricity consumption.
Using 2025 as the reference year, the transmission system operators expect installed capacity of large-scale battery storage to increase from 2.7 GW to between 84.1 GW and 102.4 GW by 2040. Installed storage capacity is expected to rise from the current 4.1 GWh to between 168.2 GWh and 204.8 GWh by 2040, according to the draft. By 2045, the transmission system operators expect only marginal increases in the installed power and energy capacity of large-scale storage.
For small battery storage systems, as defined by the transmission system operators, the grid development plan projects installed capacity to increase from the current 14.2 GW to between 47.4 GW and 79.5 GW. Storage capacity is expected to rise from 21.3 GWh to between 94.8 GWh and 159 GWh by 2040. Here too, the transmission system operators expect only minor changes in installed power and energy capacity after 2040.
The transmission system operators expect gross electricity consumption to increase from the current 517.2 TWh to between 937.6 TWh and 1,139.4 TWh in 2040, reaching a maximum of 1,208.1 TWh in 2045. Data centers are one driver of this increase. Their current electricity consumption of 4.2 TWh is expected to rise to as much as 141.8 TWh in 2040 and 143.2 TWh in 2045.
Compared with the previous grid development plan, which included scenarios through 2037/2045, the transmission system operators have primarily increased their assumptions for large-scale battery storage. They previously projected between 41.1 GW and 94.1 GW of installed capacity for two-hour systems. Their projections for residential storage have been reduced slightly.
The transmission system operators’ expectations for PV deployment remain broadly stable. In the new draft, they project between 275 GW and 400 GW of installed capacity by 2040, depending on the scenario. For 2045, the projections range from 325 GW to 400 GW. However, the previous grid development plan had projected as much as 440 GW of installed PV capacity by 2045.
In the gas/hydrogen scenario framework, hydrogen withdrawal capacities in scenarios one and two remain at a similar level to the previous framework. Larger changes have been made in scenario three, according to the Federal Network Agency. Higher natural gas capacities and lower hydrogen capacities are now assumed for 2040 and 2045. Biomethane is also given greater weight in the new scenarios.
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